Mathematical Analysis of Mortality Rate Due to Substance Abuse in Teenagers in Jos North Metropolis

Substance abuse among teenagers is a growing public health crisis with significant implications for morbidity and mortality in Nigeria. This study applies a mathematical modeling approach to estimate and analyze the mortality rate arising from substance abuse among adolescents in Jos North Metropolis. By integrating epidemiological data with an adapted SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model, the study quantifies the dynamics of substance abuse progression and associated fatality rates among teenagers. The model incorporates real-world assumptions and mortality data to project the trajectory of substance-related deaths under various scenarios. Findings suggest that early intervention, increased recovery rates, and reduced exposure significantly lower long term mortality risks. The study underscores the importance of predictive modeling in shaping evidence-based policies and intervention programs targeted at mitigating adolescent mortality due to substance abuse.